![]() To leave these out in trends as anomalies, is to risk leaving out the very thing that affected the sample most. These Black Swans have a greater impact than the small, regular, everyday occurrences, in spite of their rarity. ![]() These can include ideas, inventions, religions, historical events, success stories, failures, life events, opportunities, stock market crashes, wars, etc. Notes:Ī “Black Swan” describes an event that is an (1) Unpredictable outlier, which (2) creates an extreme impact, and which (3) human nature makes us concoct explanations for, after the fact. We should aim to be robust against the negative Black Swans, but be open to the positive Black Swans, accepting that we can’t predict the specifics of either of these. The impact of these Black Swans outweighs the impact of the steady, predictable trends, but they aren’t included in our usual predictive models. ![]() The Black Swan - Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3-Sentence Summary:Ī “Black Swan” describes an event that is an outlier, which has an extreme impact, and is only explainable after the fact. ![]()
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